The Next Affirmed?

Here we go again, another year and yet another Kentucky Derby winner carries the burden of attempting to become the next Triple Crown winner. Not since Affirmed, way back in 1978, has the feat been carried off.

The gruelling schedule of three top class dirt races, over varying distances, in the space of just five weeks, seems to be coming ever more elusive for the modern, more fragile thoroughbred.

Step forward Orb, this year's Kentucky Derby victor, who attempts to defy recent history by winning the 138th Preakness Stakes and then going on to glory at Belmont Park just three weeks from now.

Racing a long way off a suicidal pace at Churchill Downs, this massive beast of a horse simply sluiced his way through the slop and drew away for a comprehensive win in the Run For The Roses.

Notwithstanding a premature effort by Normandy Invasion, there were no real hard luck stories as Orb stamped himself the best of his generation so far. The question now is whether or not he can go on to become the best of his generation full stop.

While history is not on his side, he does have a very stout pedigree by North American standards and the mile and a half distance of the Belmont seems absolutely made to measure for him.

But does he have the versatility to drop back in trip here and take the middle leg?

The pace in the Derby was very fast and doesn't figure to be quite as fast in the Preakness. Indeed, his rival jockeys will know that a fast pace will play to his strengths so may well not be in a hurry from the get-go.

Tactically, Orb has shown the ability to stalk in the past and it may be that rider of the moment Joel Rosario needs to have him a bit closer early than in the Derby.

His draw in stall 1 may not be ideal, though, and he could well find himself shuffled back to nearer last than first if not breaking alertly.

If this scenario unfolds and the big horse finds himself at the back of the pack while the race unfolds at a tepid pace, he could well be compromised.

Of course, all this is conjecture. If Orb really is the next Triple Crown winner, he'll be able to cope with whatever this particular race throws at him.

If he isn't as good as most of America is hoping, then the wait for Affirmed's successor is destined to go on.

For another year, at least.