The Next Affirmed?

Here we go again, another year and yet another Kentucky Derby winner carries the burden of attempting to become the next Triple Crown winner. Not since Affirmed, way back in 1978, has the feat been carried off.

The gruelling schedule of three top class dirt races, over varying distances, in the space of just five weeks, seems to be coming ever more elusive for the modern, more fragile thoroughbred.

Step forward Orb, this year's Kentucky Derby victor, who attempts to defy recent history by winning the 138th Preakness Stakes and then going on to glory at Belmont Park just three weeks from now.

Racing a long way off a suicidal pace at Churchill Downs, this massive beast of a horse simply sluiced his way through the slop and drew away for a comprehensive win in the Run For The Roses.

Notwithstanding a premature effort by Normandy Invasion, there were no real hard luck stories as Orb stamped himself the best of his generation so far. The question now is whether or not he can go on to become the best of his generation full stop.

While history is not on his side, he does have a very stout pedigree by North American standards and the mile and a half distance of the Belmont seems absolutely made to measure for him.

But does he have the versatility to drop back in trip here and take the middle leg?

The pace in the Derby was very fast and doesn't figure to be quite as fast in the Preakness. Indeed, his rival jockeys will know that a fast pace will play to his strengths so may well not be in a hurry from the get-go.

Tactically, Orb has shown the ability to stalk in the past and it may be that rider of the moment Joel Rosario needs to have him a bit closer early than in the Derby.

His draw in stall 1 may not be ideal, though, and he could well find himself shuffled back to nearer last than first if not breaking alertly.

If this scenario unfolds and the big horse finds himself at the back of the pack while the race unfolds at a tepid pace, he could well be compromised.

Of course, all this is conjecture. If Orb really is the next Triple Crown winner, he'll be able to cope with whatever this particular race throws at him.

If he isn't as good as most of America is hoping, then the wait for Affirmed's successor is destined to go on.

For another year, at least.

Scarlet To Strike At Hollywood

In the week when it was announced that historic Hollywood Park is set to close it's doors, i feel it's only fitting that i should write about one of their races.

The Senorita Stakes is a Grade 3 event for three year old fillies, run on turf over a mile.

UK readers will perhaps be familiar with some of the names in this contest, as no less than four of the eight-strong field are ex-British runners.

Lilbourne Eliza, Disko Dasko, Need You Now and Charlie Em all showed smart form in Europe, without being anywhere near Graded Stakes-calibre.

Of course, things can change when European imports find themselves in sunnier climes, not least because the addition of Lasix tends to give their form a boost.

A quick glance at the BHA ratings of the ex-UK fillies tells us that they are pretty much well matched on that scale, though Charlie Em has yet to race in America, so may contain just a little more upside. She has to prove that she has acclimatised as well as the three other girls, though.

Lilbourne Eliza failed by just a nose to make a winning start to her American career, but now has to prove that she can cope with this step up in class.

Disko Dasko's best form was shown in France on heavy ground, something she is almost certain to not get here. Similar comments apply to Need You Now, who took a massive step forward on heavy ground at Newbury in October.

Both of these fillies have run creditably so far in California, without setting the World alight.

While European form is always a major consideration on turf in the US, these four fillies have a mountain to climb if they are to match Scarlet Strike.

Jerry Hollendorfer's versatile runner has Grade 1 placings on dirt and AW, and was victorious last time out on turf, in a Grade 3 event at Santa Anita.

While the step down in trip to a mile from a mile and an eighth won't exactly be in favour of this late-running daughter of Smart Strike, Timeform ratings tell us that she has somewhere in the region of five to seven lengths in hand of this field, if she performs anywhere near her best.

She will need some racing luck in a race that could unfold at a tepid pace, but she looks more than capable of taking this, before stepping up in class once again.

Anyone in the UK who wishes to watch and bet on the Hollywood card tonight, can do so at www.racebets.com.

Good luck if getting involved.

The Second Coming!

Welcome to my blog.

Some of you will have been here before, some of you will be visiting for the first time.

This is, in effect, the second coming of my blogging life. The first blog i wrote was very well received and became reasonably popular.

I have decided to revive it to indulge my passion for writing about horse racing and, in particular, the nuances and excitement of American racing.

Most of my posts will be about US racing, with race previews and insights.

There are a lot of people out there, especially in the UK, who would like to get more involved with American racing but would like some guidance and information to help them on their way.

Hopefully, the blog will help these people to find their feet and gain some more knowledge and insight into the US racing scene.

The blog will not just be aimed at the US racing novice, but the more experienced and professional punters too. Hopefully, there'll be enough to keep everyone interested.

Anyway, enough of my ramblings. Enjoy the blog and i shall endeavour to get my first proper article up as quickly as possible.

In the meantime, feel free to follow me on Twitter : @markmill_gg77.

Thanks for your support,

Mark